Russia’s 2024-25 wheat export forecast drops to 40.5 MMT, the lowest in years, due to declining shipments and logistical challenges impacting global wheat markets.
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Moscow, Russia: Russia’s wheat exports for the 2024-25 marketing year are now projected to total 40.5 million metric tons (MMT), marking a 1.5 MMT decrease from the previous forecast, according to Rusagrotrans, a leading Russian agricultural transport firm.
The revised estimate includes shipments to Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.
Declining Export Volumes in Early 2025
In February 2025, Russia exported 1.95 MMT of wheat, the lowest level for February in the past five years.
The outlook for March appears even more concerning, as deep-water port applications, which typically handle 80% of Russian wheat exports, have fallen below 1 MMT.
Rusagrotrans now estimates that March wheat exports will range between 1.5 MMT and 1.6 MMT, potentially marking the lowest export volume for March in four years.
The decline is attributed to logistical challenges, regulatory restrictions, and lower-than-expected demand in international markets.
Export Quotas and Market Impact
Russia has an export quota of 10.6 MMT from February 15 to June 30, 2025.
However, Rusagrotrans warns that actual shipments may only reach 7 MMT, raising concerns about supply shortages in the global wheat market.
The company noted that replacing missing Russian wheat exports will be challenging for international buyers over the next four months, particularly for countries that rely heavily on Russian grain supplies.
Production Challenges and Future Outlook
Russia’s 2024-25 wheat production is projected to be 82.42 MMT, reflecting an 11.2% decline from the previous year due to adverse weather conditions and shifting crop patterns.
Some Russian farmers have moved away from wheat production after experiencing significant losses in the past year.
Looking ahead, Rusagrotrans forecasts a potential rebound in wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year, with estimated output reaching 84.6 MMT, provided weather conditions remain favorable.
Global Market Implications
As the world’s largest wheat exporter, Russia plays a crucial role in global grain markets.
The decline in Russian wheat exports could lead to rising prices and supply concerns, particularly for import-dependent regions such as North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Russia’s export policies and pricing strategies also continue to influence global markets.
The Russian government has instructed exporters not to sell wheat below $250 per metric ton at tenders, further affecting global trade dynamics.
Expansion of Export Infrastructure
Russia has been expanding its Baltic port infrastructure to address long-term trade challenges and enhance its grain export capabilities.
The country is seeking new markets and developing alternative shipping routes to sustain its dominant position in the global wheat trade.
Conclusion
The sharp decline in Russian wheat exports signals potential global market volatility.
While the country remains a leading exporter, logistical constraints, quota limitations, and weather-related production declines have contributed to the reduced forecast.
With growing uncertainty in supply chains, major wheat-importing nations may seek alternative sources.
At the same time, Russia continues to adapt its trade policies and infrastructure to maintain its market presence.
The coming months will be critical in determining how these factors shape the global wheat trade for the remainder of the 2024-25 season.
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